We often get asked to analyse situations and offer advice on specific problems and the following is a good example. A ship owner client asked us to assess the situation in Ukraine and specifically the situation around the grain initiative, his vessels that were stuck in various ports and the feasibility of sailing the vessels out. This was no small task, but one that played to our strengths. Our analysts got to work and the network started feeding back information that built a picture for our client that led to some critical decisions. When we started the analysis the grain initiative had been running since July 2022 with around 800 vessels having left Ukraine with grain and other food stuffs destined for the world market with the majority in March 2022 going to China, Spain and Turkey. Some of the vessels could be integrated into the initiative, but some couldn’t due to insurance and existing cargo. We accurately predicted the initiative renewal despite the Lavrov and Putin sabre rattling and then focused on the possible outcomes of a vessel leaving Ukraine outside of the initiative. The risks in this case were weighed against not only the costs of inaction, but also the potential risk to life and would have to be from the perspective of the vessel while accounting for the Russian view of action. As ever OSINT played a central role with the Sparten Team building collaborative relationships across borders and platforms to identify patterns of behaviour, dispositions, precedents and the critical information that would enable us to accurately advise the client and enable decision making. AI had recently been integrated into our processes and played a key role in understanding historic vessel data against the grain initiative data and coupled with geopolitical factors. For example, a Hong Kong flagged vessel had a higher chance of success against other flag states according to the matrix we devised. Timing is often the factor that is hardest to predict or advise on, but we set a number of key pre-conditions that if met would act as decision markers and prompt client action. When Prigozhin started his march on Moscow or rather his troops did, we saw the conditions start to move in the client’s favour. We hear people say that decision making, in todays business world, is harder than ever. We agree, which is why we get asked to help with the tricky stuff.

https://www.ft.com/content/3fbb9cc8-3805-4591-9694-5c45cfd8c51b