We have formalised our approach to strategic advice over the years with process being introduced along with various expensive tools, but we have never taken the human intelligence element out and it is a theme that runs through all our reporting. We see the triangulation of information specific to the client context as all important. It must be actionable and well tempered. The need for relevant forecasting is critical as the world faces complex and unpredictable challenges and especially in a year with so many elections and with conflict on the rise. At Sparten, we specialise in intelligence and strategic advice, leveraging traditional human source intelligence while embracing modern forecasting methods to enhance decision-making.
Traditional forecasting models, which often relied on historical data and linear projections, have their strengths but also significant limitations. The unexpected outbreak of COVID-19 and its global impact highlighted how conventional predictive models can fall short in foreseeing low-probability, high-impact events. These models struggled to predict the pandemic’s spread and its profound economic consequences.
Recent advancements in predictive methodologies offer promising alternatives. Chaos theory, Bayesian updating, and advanced artificial intelligence (AI) have emerged as valuable tools. Despite these advancements, the human element remains indispensable in forecasting. Research by Mellers et al. (2015) and Chang et al. (2016) demonstrated that some individuals consistently outperform others in predicting future events, underscoring the importance of maintaining the ‘human in the loop’ in forecasting processes. At Sparten we believe its crucial that the human element remains relevant and is human sources of information are valued for their experience and intuition.
The synergy between human intuition and machine learning holds significant promise for improving geopolitical forecasts. Machines excel in processing large datasets, while human forecasters bring invaluable cognitive abilities to the table. By analysing the rationales, responses, and psychological characteristics of forecasters, machine learning algorithms can predict the likelihood of a prediction being accurate. This integration enhances our ability to navigate the complexities of geopolitics, maintaining the critical role of human judgment.
A great example is the ‘Cosmic Bazaar’, a forecasting tournament established by the British government three years ago. It involves civil servants, diplomats, police officers, and intelligence personnel, who have collectively made over 10,000 forecasts since April 2020. This initiative represents the gamification of intelligence analysis, using publicly available information to tackle live questions. Forecasters are ranked by the accuracy of their predictions, incentivising participation and enhancing the rigour of intelligence assessments.
The COVID-19 pandemic underscores the importance of monitoring and addressing low-probability, high-impact risks and understanding how to implement resilience. Strategic foresight is essential for navigating such uncertainties and can inform decision-making across multiple jurisdictions and guides re-structuring. Methods such as horizon scanning, aggregated judgmental forecasting, and scenario planning, help our clients make the right decisions.
In conclusion, while advanced forecasting methodologies offer significant potential, the human element remains crucial. Maintaining the ‘human in the loop’ ensures that we leverage the strengths of both human intuition and machine learning, leading to more accurate and actionable geopolitical forecasts. Contact Spartan for more information.
